The truism of Israeli politics that "elections are lost rather than won", has never been more evident than in this current electoral contest between Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon (which is, incidentally, the first ever election for the position of Prime Minister, totally independent of elections for the Knesset).

Whether Ehud Barak deserves the degree of dissatisfaction among the Israeli public or not, is a matter of dispute. However, polls consistently demonstrate that the overwhelming majority of Israelis do not want him to continue as Prime Minister. Moreover, polls and surveys indicate that the degree of support for Ariel Sharon is apparently more than adequate enough to win the election, but also that this election may see the lowest electoral turnout in Israel's history (both as a result of protest as well as disinterest), but also that the largest number ever of blank (protest) votes is likely to be cast into the ballot boxes.

Barak

What has led to such a degree of alienation from Ehud Barak? The answer is to be found both in substance and style.

The reality is that life in Israel today is physically less secure than when Barak came into power. The impact of the latest Intifada has Israeli society feeling confused and vulnerable. As a result there is a desire to "restore" a sense of greater security.

It matters little whether one argues that Barak is not the source of the violence: or that every possible alternative for dealing with terror has been tried in the past and that there are no "quick fixes"; or that more aggressive tactics will only prove to be counter-productive; the general public is not interested in such reasoning. What matters to Israelis above all, is their own personal perceptions of security, whether life feels more secure or less so, and today the feeling of insecurity is unquestionably greater. According to the findings of a survey released this week by the newly appointed Chief Police Commissioner Shlomo Aharonishky – 65% of Israelis fear for their personal safety.

The second reason for alienation from Barak has more to do with style. The word one hears most in this regard in the media and public discourse, is "zigzag"! Barak is perceived as inconsistent, both in his dealings with the Palestinians and perhaps above all in his handling of Israeli internal politics. While it is not suprising that his "rainbow coalition" that comprised such conflicting components did not hold together for long, Barak has succeeded in alienating many of those who were his most natural allies even within his own party - not least of all by giving apparently contradictory messages on Religion and State as well as on War and Peace. The result is that the public perceives him as inconsistent and unreliable. It is surely nothing less than a tragedy that Israel's most decorated hero in its history, should now be viewed as a source of insecurity both physical and psychological.

Sharon

Accordingly, Ariel Sharon has needed nothing more than to let matters run their course and allow the ripe fruit to fall into his lap. However, Sharon has no shortage of skeletons in his closet, as well as a rich record of blunt commentary that could frighten off the mainstream of Israeli society, currently looking for a strong but stable and disciplined leadership. His able campaign managers have relied upon the short memory of the public and the lack of memory of the significant segment of the electorate from the former Soviet Union. Sharon's advisers have cautioned him to say as little as possible; avoid debates, especially with Barak; in fact, avoid media interviews generally and keep off the subject of Lebanon for all he's worth. They have also kept the media away from all his meetings with haredi rabbis, so as not to alienate the secular voters and especially the immigrants from the former Soviet Union. But in the last week this able strategy has unraveled somewhat. In appearances at different high schools, Sharon has been mercilessly challenged on his Lebanon record and his comments carried in the recent issue of the New Yorker as well as other past interviews in Israeli periodicals, have been dredged up by his opponents to the evident discomfort of both Sharon and his party.

Nevertheless, the consequent decline of public support for Sharon in the polls has not been to Barak's advantage, but only appears to have increased the number of undecided or abstaining voters.

While Barak is not expected to bring about a last-minute agreement with the Palestinians, leading Israeli commentators such as Aryeh Caspi, have pointed to a lasting legacy that Barak will leave behind and which the latest negotiations highlight. Namely, that the issues that have to be confronted for there to be any lasting solution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict are now clearly on the table, no longer obscured by traditional slogans and platitudes. At the end of the day, only if an acceptable compromise can be found to the questions of Jerusalem, final borders and compensation for Palestinian refugees, will Barak's stillborn attempt to reach "an end to the conflict" be crowned with success. However, it looks that if and when that happens, it will not be Prime Minister Barak’s crown to wear.