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THE UNITED NATIONS AND PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
On September 23, Mahmoud Abbas submitted to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a formal application for “the State Palestine” to become a full member of the United Nations despite forceful appeals from President Obama and other leading members of the international community to return to negotiations and refrain from unilateral and confrontational action.
Leaders of the international community, including President k Obama, leading European figures and others, spent the week leading up to Abbas’ submission, urging the Palestinians to resume negotiations with Israel. As President Obama said in his speech to the General Assembly on September 21, “There is no shortcut to the end of a conflict that has endured for decades. Peace will not come through statements and resolutions at the UN – if it were that easy, it would have been accomplished by now. Ultimately, it is Israelis and Palestinians who must live side by side. Ultimately, it is Israelis and Palestinians – not us – who must reach agreement on the issues that divide them: on borders and security; on refugees and Jerusalem.”
Immediately after submitting the membership application, Abbas gave a strident speech before the United Nations General Assembly in which his calls for peace rang hollow amidst the extreme accusations against Israel, including charges of colonialism, ethnic cleansing, and Abbas’ clear efforts to reposition the Israeli-Palestinian conflict not as a territorial conflict, but a religious and racial conflict.
In stark contrast, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech soon after focused on Israel’s desire for peace and throughout, he called on the Palestinians to come back to negotiations. He declared: “The Palestinians should first make peace with Israel and then get their state. But I also want to tell you this. After such a peace agreement is signed, Israel will not be the last country to welcome a Palestinian state as a new member of the United Nations. We will be the first.”
Later that same day, the Middle East Quartet, comprised of the U.S., the E.U., the U.N. and Russia issued a statement urging the parties to return to negotiations without preconditions, and setting a time-table for talks.
What Happens Next:
- In accordance with the U.N. Charter, the Secretary General conveyed the membership application to the President of the Security Council. Lebanon currently holds the rotating presidency until the end of the September.
- There are no strict procedures guiding how soon the Security Council must to consider membership requests. The Council has set brought together a committee to “study” the application, but it is believed that the 15 member of the Council will take weeks and possibly months before making a decision.
- According to the U.N. Charter membership requirements, 9 of the 15 members must vote in favor of membership, with none of the 5 permanent members (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China) voting against. To date, it is unclear that the Palestinian membership bid has the support of 9 Council members. (As of this writing, it is unclear how Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Gabon, Nigeria and Portugal will vote and if the U.K. and France, will vote against membership or if they will abstain.) The United States is engaged in efforts to shore up sufficient support on the Security Council to prevent a vote by 9 members in favor of the Palestinian bid and has made clear it will veto such a membership application if necessary.
- Palestinian officials have suggested that they may not press the Security Council to vote on their membership immediately, but will allow time for study and deliberation. Officials have also indicated that they will not pursue a resolution in the General Assembly until the process in the Security Council is complete. This tactic could enable the Palestinians to take credit for “taking action,” while hoping that the anticipated slow response of the Security Council will forestall their having to “suffer the consequences” in terms of a negative backlash by Israel, the United States (particularly action by Congress) and others in the international community.
- If the Palestinians do submit a resolution to the General Assembly, they are expected call for an upgrade of their official status in the United Nations from the current “observer” to “observer state.” The only other “observer state” in the U.N. is the Holy See. Given the political realities of the General Assembly’s pro-Palestinian resolutions garner an “automatic majority.” While the Palestinian goal would be to have at least 2/3 of the member states vote in favor of their resolution, there is no doubt it would easily garner the support of over 100 states, and likely more. European and many other moderate member states have said their vote will depend on the wording of the resolution and other political considerations.
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